Triple Lock Crisis: Pension Age May Hit 74 Without Reform
A bombshell report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) reveals the triple lock on state pensions could become unsustainable, potentially forcing the retirement age to 74 by 2069 unless changes are made.
Key Findings from the IFS Report
🔹 £40bn Cost by 2050 – The triple lock could add billions to public spending
🔹 Pension Age May Rise to 74 – To keep costs under control, retirement age hikes are likely
🔹 Poorer Households Hit Hardest – Lower-income workers would suffer most from delayed pensions
🔹 Double Lock Proposed – Linking increases to wages or inflation (not both + 2.5%) could save billions
Why Is the Triple Lock Under Threat?
✅ Current Policy: State pension rises by the highest of:
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Inflation
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Average earnings growth
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2.5% minimum
✅ Problem: An ageing population means more pensioners, spiralling costs
✅ Projections:
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State pension spending could rise from 5% to 8% of GDP (£240bn) by 2070
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Keeping the triple lock would add £15bn/year by 2050 vs. wage-linked rises
What Are the Alternatives?
1️⃣ Scrap the Triple Lock – Replace with a double lock (wages or inflation)
2️⃣ Raise Pension Age Further – Already set to hit 67 by 2028, may need to reach 69 by 2049
3️⃣ Boost Private Pensions – Employers could contribute 3%+ of revenues to retirement funds
Political Standpoint
🏛️ Labour’s Pledge: Keep triple lock until 2029
🏛️ IFS Warning: Policy is “unpredictable” – costs surge if economy struggles
🏛️ Government Response: Reforms aim to “ensure greater security in retirement”
What Does This Mean for You?
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Current pensioners: Safe for now (April’s 8.5% rise added £900/year)
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Future retirees: Risk of later access to state pension
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Workers: May need to save more privately
Expert Opinions
“The triple lock can’t go on forever. Once pensions reach 33% of average earnings, it should be removed.”
– Paul Johnson, IFS Director
“A double-lock isn’t much better. If the economy struggles, it could still cost billions.”
– Jonathan Cribb, IFS Retirement Expert
What’s Next?
📅 2026-2028: Pension age rises to 67
📅 2049: Could hit 69 if triple lock stays
📅 2069: May reach 74 under worst-case projections
